Explainer · updated for the March 2026 lottery
The H-1B lottery is no longer random. Your salary sets your odds.
For fifteen years the H-1B cap lottery treated a $65,000 offer and a $250,000 offer identically. That ended with the DHS weighted-selection rule — published December 29, 2025, effective 2026-02-27, first applied in the March 2026 registration. Registrations now earn one to four lottery entries based on the OFLC wage level of the offered job.
Entries and projected odds by wage level
| OFLC wage level | Lottery entries | Projected selection rate |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | ×1 | ~15.3% |
| Level II | ×2 | ~30.6% |
| Level III | ×3 | ~45.9% |
| Level IV | ×4 | ~61.2% |
Projections from the rule's own analysis (see the Federal Register final rule); actual selection rates depend on each year's registration volume.
Why this changes offer negotiation
Wage levels are set per occupation and county, in dollar bands. That means an offer sitting a few thousand dollars below the next threshold is leaving a full lottery entry on the table — roughly the difference between ~31% and ~46% odds if the jump is from Level II to Level III. In FY2026 filings so far, 15.9% of certified H-1B LCAs were still filed at Level I and 40.8% at Level II; the median offered base across all filings was $130,000.
Three practical moves for a candidate holding an offer in 2026:
- Find your occupation and county thresholds before signing — here is how to look them up.
- If you are near a threshold, negotiate base salary specifically (equity and bonus do not count toward the wage level).
- Ask the employer which wage level they intend to register — it is a fair question, and the answer is verifiable in public filings.
Check where your offer lands
Request a free H-1B Offer Brief: estimated wage level for your salary, role, and metro, your lottery entries under this rule, and how the offer compares with the employer's own DOL filings.
Wage and wage-level figures come from the DOL OFLC LCA Disclosure Data, FY2026 Q2 (H-1B only) public release (FY2026 Q2 (Oct 2025 – Mar 2026 decisions)). LCA filings are wage attestations filed with the Department of Labor — they are not petitions, lottery selections, or hires, and one filing can cover multiple positions. Projected lottery selection rates come from the DHS weighted-selection final rule analysis and are illustrative, not a guarantee.
Common questions
When did the weighted H-1B lottery start?
DHS published the weighted-selection final rule on December 29, 2025; it took effect February 27, 2026 and first applied to the March 2026 registration for FY2027 cap cases.
How are entries assigned?
Each registration receives entries equal to the OFLC wage level of the offered position: Level I gets one entry, Level II two, Level III three, Level IV four. The level comes from the prevailing-wage system for the offered SOC occupation and worksite county.
Do higher entries guarantee selection?
No — it is still a lottery. The projected rates (~15% at Level I to ~61% at Level IV, from the rule's analysis) describe expected odds given registration volumes, and real-world rates shift with each year's demand.
Can I negotiate my way into a higher wage level?
Sometimes. If your offer sits just below the next level's threshold for your occupation and county, a modest base-salary increase can add a lottery entry. That framing — entries, not just dollars — is often the strongest negotiation argument an H-1B candidate has in 2026. Check your offer before you have that conversation.